The Nationals locked up Austin Kearns for three years and in the process, they’ll avoid arbitration with the oufielder. Kearns will make $17.5 million over the three years and there’s team option in 2010.
I like this signing. Kearns has never quite lived up to his reputation (at one time, he was the top prospect in the Reds organization, not Adam Dunn) and he showed flashes of what he could do in the first half of last year before he was traded. He still hit 24 homeruns and had 86 RBIs though, and he’s a good patient hitter.
I like what I see from Kearn’s PECOTA projection. They have him hitting .266/.362/.476 with 22 homeruns but they also have Kearns with a 25% breakout rate and a 54% improve rate. I think Kearns will get closer to his 75th percentile, which has him at .278/.377/.509 with 25 homeruns. And Kearns is only 26 (he’ll be 27 in May) so he’s coming close to those peak seasons that happen right around when a player turns 28.